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Oriente Petrolero vs Universitario de Vinto Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 14 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 23:30

Oriente Petrolero

PPG 2.17 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Universitario de Vinto

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.0%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.0%1-17.5%1-23.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.1%2-19.4%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.5%3-17.9%3-23.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-19.0%4+-24.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 63.7% 1.57 -0.3%

Draw 20.4% 23.8% 4.20 -8.6%

Away win 16.1% 22.2% 4.50 -16.5%

Over 2.5 63.7% 67.6% 1.48 -5.7%

Over 3.5 42.0% 45.5% 2.20 -7.6%

BTTS 54.6% 65.4% 1.53 -16.5%

Home O1.5 63.0% 69.0% 1.45 -8.6%

Away O1.5 27.0% 36.4% 2.75 -15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 64% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–1 7.5%

#4 3–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oriente Petrolero2.5

Universitario de Vinto0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ORIENTE PETROLERO · PPG 2.17

UNIVERSITARIO DE VINTO · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.59 for Home, form 2.17 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Oriente Petrolero (H) 63.5%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -0.3%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.6%

Universitario de Vinto (A) 16.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oriente Petrolero face Universitario de Vinto in Bolivia - Primera División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oriente Petrolero a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Universitario de Vinto 16%, so Oriente Petrolero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Oriente Petrolero and 0.9 for Universitario de Vinto (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oriente Petrolero are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.50 for Universitario de Vinto. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 5-0.

Oriente Petrolero vs Universitario de Vinto Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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