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Universitario de Vinto vs Real Potosí Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 13 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 19:00

Universitario de Vinto

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Potosí

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.1%0-25.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.6%1-112.6%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.7%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.4%3-14.0%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% — — —

Draw 27.0% — — —

Away win 28.6% — — —

Over 2.5 53.1% — — —

Over 3.5 30.1% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 40.2% — — —

Away O1.5 35.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 0.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universitario de Vinto1.4

Real Potosí1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSITARIO DE VINTO · PPG 1.33

REAL POTOSÍ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Universitario de Vinto (H) 44.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Real Potosí (A) 28.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Universitario de Vinto face Real Potosí in Bolivia - Primera División on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universitario de Vinto a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Real Potosí 29%, so Universitario de Vinto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Universitario de Vinto and 1.2 for Real Potosí (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universitario de Vinto are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Real Potosí.

Universitario de Vinto vs Real Potosí Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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