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The Strongest vs Independiente Petrolero Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 14 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 21:15

The Strongest

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Independiente Petrolero

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 88.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.3%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.1%1-19.2%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.8%3-17.1%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-16.3%4+-22.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 88.5% 1.13 -36.2%

Draw 22.3% 14.7% 6.80 +31.0%

Away win 21.1% 7.1% 14.00 +117.2%

Over 2.5 60.4% 80.0% 1.25 -24.5%

Over 3.5 36.8% 58.8% 1.70 -37.4%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 61.7% 87.7% 1.14 -29.7%

Away O1.5 24.0% 23.1% 4.33 +2.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

The Strongest2.1

Independiente Petrolero0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

THE STRONGEST · PPG 2.00

INDEPENDIENTE PETROLERO · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

The Strongest (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.13 · IMPLIED 88.5% EV -36.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +31.0%

Independiente Petrolero (A) 21.1%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +117.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

The Strongest face Independiente Petrolero in Bolivia - Primera División on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives The Strongest a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Independiente Petrolero 21%, so The Strongest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for The Strongest and 0.9 for Independiente Petrolero (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, The Strongest are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Independiente Petrolero. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +120.8%. This match finished 1-2.

The Strongest vs Independiente Petrolero Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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