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Montego Bay vs Racing United Prediction

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Montego Bay

PPG 2.25 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Racing United

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.59)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-18.0%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.2%1-112.2%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.3%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-14.7%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% — — —

Draw 25.8% — — —

Away win 22.8% — — —

Over 2.5 44.3% — — —

Over 3.5 23.2% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.2%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montego Bay1.5

Racing United0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTEGO BAY · PPG 2.25

RACING UNITED · PPG 1.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Montego Bay (H) 51.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Racing United (A) 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Montego Bay face Racing United on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montego Bay a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Racing United 23%, so Montego Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Montego Bay and 0.9 for Racing United (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montego Bay are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.59 for Racing United. This match finished 4-1.

Montego Bay vs Racing United Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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