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Sölvesborg vs Nosaby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:15

Sölvesborg

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nosaby

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.5%0-22.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-04.8%1-17.8%1-26.3%1-33.4%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.9%3-16.3%3-25.1%3-32.8%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.9%4+-24.8%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 26.0% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 43.7% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.3%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sölvesborg2.2

Nosaby1.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SÖLVESBORG · PPG 1.25

NOSABY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sölvesborg (H) 52.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nosaby (A) 26.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sölvesborg face Nosaby in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sölvesborg a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Nosaby 26%, so Sölvesborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Sölvesborg and 1.6 for Nosaby (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sölvesborg are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Nosaby.

Sölvesborg vs Nosaby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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