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Berga vs IFK Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 15 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 13:00

Berga

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

IFK Trelleborg

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.1%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.1%1-112.2%1-26.7%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.2%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.6%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 43.1% 2.32 +14.1%

Draw 24.7% 29.9% 3.35 -10.3%

Away win 26.0% 40.8% 2.45 -21.8%

Over 2.5 53.4% 61.7% 1.62 -13.5%

Over 3.5 32.2% 37.7% 2.65 -14.7%

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -18.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 0–0 7.3%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Berga1.5

IFK Trelleborg1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BERGA · PPG 1.86

IFK TRELLEBORG · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Berga (H) 49.2%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +14.1%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.3%

IFK Trelleborg (A) 26.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Berga face IFK Trelleborg in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Berga a 49% chance, the draw 25% and IFK Trelleborg 26%, so Berga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Berga and 1.1 for IFK Trelleborg (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Berga are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.33 for IFK Trelleborg.

Berga vs IFK Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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