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Nosaby vs Linero Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Nosaby

PPG 1.86 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Linero

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.1%0-24.0%0-32.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.0%1-19.5%1-27.4%1-33.9%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.5%3-15.4%3-24.3%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.8%4+-23.0%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 44.4% 2.25 +9.8%

Draw 22.3% 27.0% 3.70 -10.5%

Away win 28.9% 38.5% 2.60 -14.9%

Over 2.5 65.2% 67.6% 1.48 -3.5%

Over 3.5 43.4% 45.5% 2.20 -4.5%

BTTS 64.3% 71.4% 1.40 -10.0%

Home O1.5 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Away O1.5 48.2% 51.8% 1.93 -7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.3%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nosaby1.9

Linero1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NOSABY · PPG 1.86

LINERO · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nosaby (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +9.8%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.5%

Linero (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nosaby face Linero in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nosaby a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Linero 29%, so Nosaby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Nosaby and 1.6 for Linero (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nosaby are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.43 for Linero. This match finished 4-0.

Nosaby vs Linero Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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