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River Plate vs Boca Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura - 15 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 20:00

River Plate

PPG 2.40 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Boca Juniors

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 45.0% — a clear edge.

+33.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-17.2%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.9%1-110.8%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-18.1%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.1%3-14.1%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-12.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.2% 45.0% 2.22 +33.6%

Draw 25.9% 32.8% 3.05 -21.0%

Away win 14.0% 29.4% 3.40 -52.4%

Over 2.5 34.4% 38.2% 2.62 -9.9%

Over 3.5 15.7% 19.0% 5.25 -17.6%

BTTS 33.9% 46.5% 2.15 -27.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob33.9%

H 60% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.9%

#2 2–0 14.2%

#3 0–0 12.5%

#4 1–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

River Plate1.5

Boca Juniors0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RIVER PLATE · PPG 2.40

BOCA JUNIORS · PPG 1.40

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=60.2%

Win probability 1X2

River Plate (H) 60.2%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +33.6%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -21.0%

Boca Juniors (A) 14.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -52.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

River Plate face Boca Juniors in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives River Plate a 60% chance, the draw 26% and Boca Juniors 14%, so River Plate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for River Plate and 0.6 for Boca Juniors (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, River Plate are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Boca Juniors. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.6%. This match finished 0-1.

River Plate vs Boca Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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