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JäPS vs Haka Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 15:30

JäPS

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Haka

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-114.2%0-29.8%0-34.5%0-4+2.1%1 1-09.2%1-112.7%1-28.8%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.1%2-15.7%2-23.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.2%3-11.7%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 25.0% 4.00 +5.5%

Draw 27.1% 27.0% 3.70 +0.2%

Away win 45.7% 57.8% 1.73 -20.9%

Over 2.5 49.9% 58.8% 1.70 -15.2%

Over 3.5 29.5% 36.4% 2.75 -11.3%

BTTS 53.1% 60.6% 1.65 -12.4%

Home O1.5 30.2% 33.9% 2.95 -10.9%

Away O1.5 42.6% 58.8% 1.70 -27.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -15.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.1%

A 46% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–1 14.2%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 0–2 9.8%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JäPS0.9

Haka1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JÄPS · PPG 2.00

HAKA · PPG 1.75

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.49, combined xG 2.27 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

JäPS (H) 27.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +5.5%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +0.2%

Haka (A) 45.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

JäPS face Haka in Finland - Ykkosliga on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JäPS a 27% chance, the draw 27% and Haka 46%, so Haka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for JäPS and 1.4 for Haka (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JäPS are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Haka.

JäPS vs Haka Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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