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MP vs KäPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 15:30

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

KäPa

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.2%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.4%1-111.8%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.6%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.2%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 48.8% 2.05 +6.4%

Draw 24.3% 28.2% 3.55 -8.2%

Away win 23.8% 33.3% 3.00 -17.2%

Over 2.5 53.4% 60.6% 1.65 -11.9%

Over 3.5 32.6% 38.5% 2.60 -15.2%

BTTS 55.4% 65.4% 1.53 -15.2%

Home O1.5 49.4% 54.6% 1.83 -9.6%

Away O1.5 33.1% 43.5% 2.30 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 52% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MP1.6

KäPa1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MP · PPG 1.57

KÄPA · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

MP (H) 51.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +6.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.2%

KäPa (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

MP face KäPa in Finland - Ykkosliga on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MP a 52% chance, the draw 24% and KäPa 24%, so MP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for MP and 1.0 for KäPa (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MP are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.88 for KäPa. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.1%.

MP vs KäPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkosliga Predictions