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SJK Akatemia vs PK-35 Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

SJK Akatemia

PPG 0.75 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

PK-35

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 58.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.0%0-124.4%0-214.8%0-36.0%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.8%1-19.5%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-01.5%2-11.9%2-21.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.2%3-10.2%3-20.1%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.1% 26.0% 3.85 -27.4%

Draw 27.9% 30.3% 3.30 -4.8%

Away win 58.0% 54.1% 1.85 +7.3%

Over 2.5 34.8% 51.3% 1.95 -32.1%

Over 3.5 18.1% 29.4% 3.40 -23.1%

BTTS 44.4% 56.5% 1.77 -21.4%

Home O1.5 29.4% 30.8% 3.25 -2.7%

Away O1.5 35.7% 51.3% 1.95 -30.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -15.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob44.4%

A 58% / xG 0.4-1.2 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 24.4%

#2 0–0 20.0%

#3 0–2 14.8%

#4 1–1 9.5%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SJK Akatemia0.4

PK-351.2

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SJK AKATEMIA · PPG 0.75

PK-35 · PPG 2.38

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.82 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

SJK Akatemia (H) 14.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -27.4%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.8%

PK-35 (A) 58.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

SJK Akatemia face PK-35 in Finland - Ykkosliga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SJK Akatemia a 14% chance, the draw 28% and PK-35 58%, so PK-35 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for SJK Akatemia and 1.2 for PK-35 (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SJK Akatemia are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.38 for PK-35. This match finished 0-3.

SJK Akatemia vs PK-35 Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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