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Haka vs JIPPO Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 15:00

Haka

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

JIPPO

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.5%0-24.9%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.0%1-111.7%1-27.6%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.0%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.6%3-14.7%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 45.5% 2.20 +1.2%

Draw 24.7% 29.9% 3.35 -10.3%

Away win 29.3% 34.7% 2.88 -9.4%

Over 2.5 60.4% 55.6% 1.80 +8.7%

Over 3.5 36.8% 33.3% 3.00 +10.4%

BTTS 60.2% 61.7% 1.62 -2.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 48.8% 2.05 -6.9%

Away O1.5 36.5% 40.8% 2.45 -10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.2%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 5.8%

#4 1–2 7.6%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haka1.5

JIPPO1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HAKA · PPG 1.89

JIPPO · PPG 1.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Haka (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +1.2%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.3%

JIPPO (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haka face JIPPO in Finland - Ykkosliga on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haka a 46% chance, the draw 25% and JIPPO 29%, so Haka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Haka and 1.3 for JIPPO (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haka are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.88 for JIPPO. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.4%.

Haka vs JIPPO Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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