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KäPa vs EIF Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

KäPa

PPG 1.12 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

EIF

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.9%0-22.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.8%1-18.5%1-26.2%1-33.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.5%3-16.5%3-24.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.8%4+-24.3%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 39.2% 2.55 +32.1%

Draw 22.2% 27.8% 3.60 -12.0%

Away win 26.0% 43.5% 2.30 -24.1%

Over 2.5 63.8% 60.6% 1.65 +5.3%

Over 3.5 43.0% 38.5% 2.60 +11.8%

BTTS 64.3% 65.4% 1.53 -1.6%

Home O1.5 61.8% 47.6% 2.10 +29.8%

Away O1.5 43.7% 50.0% 2.00 -12.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -15.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.3%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KäPa2.2

EIF1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KÄPA · PPG 1.12

EIF · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

KäPa (H) 51.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +32.1%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.0%

EIF (A) 26.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

KäPa face EIF in Finland - Ykkosliga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KäPa a 52% chance, the draw 22% and EIF 26%, so KäPa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for KäPa and 1.5 for EIF (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KäPa are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.25 for EIF. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +60.0%. This match finished 0-1.

KäPa vs EIF Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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