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Cobresal vs OHiggins Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 19:30

Cobresal

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

OHiggins

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 87.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+57.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.5%0-21.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-02.0%1-14.2%1-24.4%1-33.1%1-4+2.6%2 2-02.9%2-16.1%2-26.3%2-34.4%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.8%3-15.8%3-26.0%3-34.2%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-18.4%4+-28.8%4+-36.1%4+-4+5.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 33.3% 3.00 +64.1%

Draw 17.5% 29.0% 3.45 -39.6%

Away win 27.8% 46.5% 2.15 -40.2%

Over 2.5 87.2% 55.6% 1.80 +57.0%

Over 3.5 72.9% 33.3% 3.00 +118.7%

BTTS 82.6% 60.6% 1.65 +36.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob82.6%

H 55% / xG 2.9-2.1 / O2.5 87% / BTTS 83%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.3%

#2 2–1 6.1%

#3 3–2 6.0%

#4 3–1 5.8%

#5 1–2 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobresal2.9

OHiggins2.1

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 87.2% · O3.5 PROB 72.9%

Form & verdict PPG

COBRESAL · PPG 1.50

OHIGGINS · PPG 0.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

65%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=54.7%

Win probability 1X2

Cobresal (H) 54.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +64.1%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -39.6%

OHiggins (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -40.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobresal face OHiggins in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobresal a 55% chance, the draw 18% and OHiggins 28%, so Cobresal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Cobresal and 2.1 for OHiggins (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 87% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 83% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobresal are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.33 for OHiggins. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +118.7%. This match finished 2-3.

Cobresal vs OHiggins Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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