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Itabirito U20 vs Atlético Mineiro U20 Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro U20

Winners Stage · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 13:00

Itabirito U20

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atlético Mineiro U20

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-16.1%0-26.4%0-34.5%0-4+3.9%1 1-04.2%1-18.8%1-29.2%1-36.5%1-4+5.5%2 2-03.0%2-16.3%2-26.6%2-34.6%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.4%3-13.0%3-23.2%3-32.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.5%4+-21.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% — — —

Draw 22.9% — — —

Away win 45.6% — — —

Over 2.5 64.1% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 56.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.3%

A 46% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Itabirito U201.4

Atlético Mineiro U202.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ITABIRITO U20 · PPG 1.86

ATLÉTICO MINEIRO U20 · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.67 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Itabirito U20 (H) 31.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Atlético Mineiro U20 (A) 45.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Itabirito U20 face Atlético Mineiro U20 in Brazil - Mineiro U20 on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Itabirito U20 a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Atlético Mineiro U20 46%, so Atlético Mineiro U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Itabirito U20 and 2.1 for Atlético Mineiro U20 (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Itabirito U20 are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.71 for Atlético Mineiro U20.

Itabirito U20 vs Atlético Mineiro U20 Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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