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Athletic Club MG U20 vs Coimbra U20 Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro U20

Winners Stage · Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 18:00

Athletic Club MG U20

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Coimbra U20

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-16.3%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.0%1-110.9%1-24.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.2%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.1%3-15.5%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 54.6% 1.83 -2.6%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Over 2.5 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Over 3.5 29.4% 31.3% 3.20 -3.5%

BTTS 53.1% 56.5% 1.77 -6.0%

Home O1.5 49.2% 52.4% 1.91 -6.0%

Away O1.5 18.6% 29.9% 3.34 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 2–0 12.2%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club MG U201.7

Coimbra U200.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB MG U20 · PPG 1.67

COIMBRA U20 · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club MG U20 (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -2.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Coimbra U20 (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club MG U20 face Coimbra U20 in Brazil - Mineiro U20 on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club MG U20 a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Coimbra U20 23%, so Athletic Club MG U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Athletic Club MG U20 and 0.8 for Coimbra U20 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club MG U20 are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Coimbra U20. This match finished 0-1.

Athletic Club MG U20 vs Coimbra U20 Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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