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Cruzeiro U20 vs Itabirito U20 Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro U20

Winners Stage · Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:00

Cruzeiro U20

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Itabirito U20

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.46 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-13.9%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.5%1-18.6%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-17.0%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-16.4%4+-22.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% — — —

Draw 21.0% — — —

Away win 15.9% — — —

Over 2.5 56.2% — — —

Over 3.5 34.6% — — —

BTTS 53.0% — — —

Home O1.5 62.4% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 63% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.7%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 1–1 8.6%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruzeiro U202.2

Itabirito U200.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZEIRO U20 · PPG 2.33

ITABIRITO U20 · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.46 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cruzeiro U20 (H) 63.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Itabirito U20 (A) 15.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruzeiro U20 face Itabirito U20 in Brazil - Mineiro U20 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruzeiro U20 a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Itabirito U20 16%, so Cruzeiro U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Cruzeiro U20 and 0.8 for Itabirito U20 (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruzeiro U20 are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.17 for Itabirito U20.

Cruzeiro U20 vs Itabirito U20 Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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