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Danubio vs D. Maldonado Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 12 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 19:00

Danubio

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

D. Maldonado

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+18.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.1%0-25.2%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.5%1-111.1%1-28.1%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.6%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.1%3-14.5%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 36.0% 2.78 +10.9%

Draw 24.1% 32.3% 3.10 -25.3%

Away win 36.0% 40.8% 2.45 -11.8%

Over 2.5 58.3% 42.6% 2.35 +37.0%

Over 3.5 35.9% 22.2% 4.50 +61.6%

BTTS 60.8% 51.3% 1.95 +18.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.8%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 1–0 7.5%

#5 0–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Danubio1.6

D. Maldonado1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DANUBIO · PPG 1.80

D. MALDONADO · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Danubio (H) 39.9%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV +10.9%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -25.3%

D. Maldonado (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Danubio face D. Maldonado in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Danubio a 40% chance, the draw 24% and D. Maldonado 36%, so Danubio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Danubio and 1.5 for D. Maldonado (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Danubio are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.17 for D. Maldonado. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +61.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Danubio vs D. Maldonado Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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