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9 de Julio Rafaela vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 23:45

9 de Julio Rafaela

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimnasia Chivilcoy

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-16.8%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.1%1-111.4%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.6%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.2%3-15.4%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 23.0% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 29.0% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 22.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 2–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

9 de Julio Rafaela1.7

Gimnasia Chivilcoy0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

9 DE JULIO RAFAELA · PPG 2.00

GIMNASIA CHIVILCOY · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

9 de Julio Rafaela (H) 52.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gimnasia Chivilcoy (A) 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

9 de Julio Rafaela face Gimnasia Chivilcoy in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 9 de Julio Rafaela a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Gimnasia Chivilcoy 23%, so 9 de Julio Rafaela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for 9 de Julio Rafaela and 0.9 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 9 de Julio Rafaela are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy.

9 de Julio Rafaela vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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