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Atletico Escobar vs Sportivo Las Parejas Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 18:00

Atletico Escobar

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sportivo Las Parejas

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-19.6%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.4%1-112.4%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-18.0%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.9%3-13.4%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% — — —

Draw 28.2% — — —

Away win 23.5% — — —

Over 2.5 42.7% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.4%

#2 0–0 13.5%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Escobar1.3

Sportivo Las Parejas0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO ESCOBAR · PPG 1.70

SPORTIVO LAS PAREJAS · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Escobar (H) 48.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sportivo Las Parejas (A) 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Escobar face Sportivo Las Parejas in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Escobar a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Sportivo Las Parejas 24%, so Atletico Escobar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atletico Escobar and 0.7 for Sportivo Las Parejas (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Escobar are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.70 for Sportivo Las Parejas.

Atletico Escobar vs Sportivo Las Parejas Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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