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Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Douglas Haig Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 18:30

Defensores de Belgrano VR

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Douglas Haig

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-17.2%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.1%1-111.5%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.2%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.4%3-14.9%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 23.1% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 47.2% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.1%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores de Belgrano VR1.6

Douglas Haig0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO VR · PPG 2.20

DOUGLAS HAIG · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Defensores de Belgrano VR (H) 52.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Douglas Haig (A) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores de Belgrano VR face Douglas Haig in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores de Belgrano VR a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Douglas Haig 23%, so Defensores de Belgrano VR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Defensores de Belgrano VR and 0.8 for Douglas Haig (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores de Belgrano VR are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.10 for Douglas Haig.

Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Douglas Haig Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Torneo Federal A Predictions