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Germinal de Rawson vs Santamarina Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 18:00

Germinal de Rawson

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santamarina

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.4%0-19.0%0-21.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-025.8%1-19.2%1-21.6%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-013.1%2-14.7%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.4%3-11.6%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% — — —

Draw 32.3% — — —

Away win 19.1% — — —

Over 2.5 34.0% — — —

Over 3.5 14.5% — — —

BTTS 41.0% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob41.0%

H 49% / xG 1.0-0.4 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.4%

#2 1–0 25.8%

#3 2–0 13.1%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Germinal de Rawson1.0

Santamarina0.4

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GERMINAL DE RAWSON · PPG 2.00

SANTAMARINA · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Germinal de Rawson (H) 48.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Santamarina (A) 19.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Germinal de Rawson face Santamarina in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Germinal de Rawson a 49% chance, the draw 32% and Santamarina 19%, so Germinal de Rawson are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Germinal de Rawson and 0.4 for Santamarina (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Germinal de Rawson are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.44 for Santamarina.

Germinal de Rawson vs Santamarina Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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