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Defensores de Vilelas vs Tucuman Central Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 18:30

Defensores de Vilelas

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tucuman Central

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.82 for Home, form 1.78 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-12.6%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.3%1-16.8%1-22.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-19.0%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-17.9%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.1%4+-19.9%4+-24.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.2% — — —

Draw 17.3% — — —

Away win 11.5% — — —

Over 2.5 64.1% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 21.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 71% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 3–0 9.7%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores de Vilelas2.6

Tucuman Central0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES DE VILELAS · PPG 1.78

TUCUMAN CENTRAL · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.82 for Home, form 1.78 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Defensores de Vilelas (H) 71.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tucuman Central (A) 11.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores de Vilelas face Tucuman Central in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores de Vilelas a 71% chance, the draw 17% and Tucuman Central 12%, so Defensores de Vilelas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Defensores de Vilelas and 0.8 for Tucuman Central (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores de Vilelas are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.00 for Tucuman Central.

Defensores de Vilelas vs Tucuman Central Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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