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Deportivo Rincon vs Circulo Deportivo Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Rincon

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Circulo Deportivo

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.7%0-16.4%0-21.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.3%1-18.8%1-21.6%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.6%2-16.0%2-21.1%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.6%3-12.7%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-11.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.8% — — —

Draw 27.5% — — —

Away win 15.7% — — —

Over 2.5 34.2% — — —

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.6%

H 57% / xG 1.4-0.4 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 24.3%

#2 0–0 17.7%

#3 2–0 16.6%

#4 1–1 8.8%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Rincon1.4

Circulo Deportivo0.4

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO RINCON · PPG 1.78

CIRCULO DEPORTIVO · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Rincon (H) 56.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Circulo Deportivo (A) 15.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Rincon face Circulo Deportivo in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Rincon a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Circulo Deportivo 16%, so Deportivo Rincon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Deportivo Rincon and 0.4 for Circulo Deportivo (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Rincon are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.33 for Circulo Deportivo.

Deportivo Rincon vs Circulo Deportivo Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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