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Independiente De Chivilcoy vs Sarmiento Resistencia Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 18:30

Independiente De Chivilcoy

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sarmiento Resistencia

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-15.0%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.2%1-19.6%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.3%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.8%3-16.0%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-14.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% — — —

Draw 22.9% — — —

Away win 17.6% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 31.3% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 60% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente De Chivilcoy1.9

Sarmiento Resistencia0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE DE CHIVILCOY · PPG 1.44

SARMIENTO RESISTENCIA · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente De Chivilcoy (H) 59.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sarmiento Resistencia (A) 17.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente De Chivilcoy face Sarmiento Resistencia in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente De Chivilcoy a 60% chance, the draw 23% and Sarmiento Resistencia 18%, so Independiente De Chivilcoy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Independiente De Chivilcoy and 0.7 for Sarmiento Resistencia (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente De Chivilcoy are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.33 for Sarmiento Resistencia.

Independiente De Chivilcoy vs Sarmiento Resistencia Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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