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Fundacion Amigos vs Costa Brava Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 14:30

Fundacion Amigos

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Costa Brava

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.8%0-18.0%0-22.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.1%1-110.7%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-17.2%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.3%3-13.2%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 21.7% — — —

Over 2.5 37.0% — — —

Over 3.5 18.2% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 16.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 52% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.1%

#2 0–0 15.8%

#3 2–0 14.1%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fundacion Amigos1.3

Costa Brava0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FUNDACION AMIGOS · PPG 1.78

COSTA BRAVA · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fundacion Amigos (H) 51.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Costa Brava (A) 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fundacion Amigos face Costa Brava in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fundacion Amigos a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Costa Brava 22%, so Fundacion Amigos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Fundacion Amigos and 0.5 for Costa Brava (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fundacion Amigos are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.67 for Costa Brava.

Fundacion Amigos vs Costa Brava Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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