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Alvarado vs Huracan Las Heras Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 18:30

Alvarado

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Huracan Las Heras

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-13.4%0-20.4%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.2%1-15.9%1-20.7%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-020.8%2-15.0%2-20.6%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.9%3-12.9%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-11.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.1% — — —

Draw 23.0% — — —

Away win 7.9% — — —

Over 2.5 42.7% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 35.3% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.2 BTTS prob35.3%

H 69% / xG 1.7-0.2 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 24.2%

#2 2–0 20.8%

#3 0–0 14.1%

#4 3–0 11.9%

#5 1–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alvarado1.7

Huracan Las Heras0.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ALVARADO · PPG 2.50

HURACAN LAS HERAS · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alvarado (H) 69.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Huracan Las Heras (A) 7.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Alvarado face Huracan Las Heras in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alvarado a 69% chance, the draw 23% and Huracan Las Heras 8%, so Alvarado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Alvarado and 0.2 for Huracan Las Heras (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alvarado are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.78 for Huracan Las Heras.

Alvarado vs Huracan Las Heras Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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