Today / Argentina - Torneo Federal A / Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Villa Mitre

Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Villa Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 22:30

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Villa Mitre

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-038.2%0-19.4%0-21.1%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-027.4%1-16.7%1-20.8%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-09.8%2-12.4%2-20.3%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.4%3-10.6%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% — — —

Draw 35.3% — — —

Away win 21.5% — — —

Over 2.5 26.3% — — —

Over 3.5 13.1% — — —

BTTS 31.7% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.2 BTTS prob31.7%

H 43% / xG 0.7-0.2 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 38.2%

#2 1–0 27.4%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 0–1 9.4%

#5 1–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpo Bahia Blanca0.7

Villa Mitre0.2

COMBINED 1.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.1%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPO BAHIA BLANCA · PPG 2.11

VILLA MITRE · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 0.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olimpo Bahia Blanca (H) 43.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 35.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Villa Mitre (A) 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpo Bahia Blanca face Villa Mitre in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpo Bahia Blanca a 43% chance, the draw 35% and Villa Mitre 22%, so Olimpo Bahia Blanca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Olimpo Bahia Blanca and 0.2 for Villa Mitre (1.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpo Bahia Blanca are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.11 for Villa Mitre.

Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Villa Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Torneo Federal A Predictions