Today / France - Ligue 1 / Paris SG vs Lyon

Paris SG vs Lyon Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:45

Paris SG

PPG 2.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Lyon

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

Home 75% chance

Model probability 70.5% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-13.7%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.4%1-18.4%1-23.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-17.3%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-17.0%4+-22.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.5% 76.9% 1.30 -8.3%

Draw 17.8% 18.5% 5.40 -3.9%

Away win 11.7% 11.8% 8.50 -0.5%

Over 2.5 59.5% 69.0% 1.45 -13.7%

Over 3.5 37.1% 47.6% 2.10 -22.1%

BTTS 49.7% 58.8% 1.70 -15.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.7%

H 70% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 1–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 3–0 9.0%

#5 1–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paris SG2.3

Lyon0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PARIS SG · PPG 2.62

LYON · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

75%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.62), Away AVERAGE (1.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Paris SG (H) 70.5%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -8.3%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -3.9%

Lyon (A) 11.7%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paris SG face Lyon in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paris SG a 71% chance, the draw 18% and Lyon 12%, so Paris SG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Paris SG and 0.8 for Lyon (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paris SG are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 1.33 for Lyon. This match finished 1-2.

Paris SG vs Lyon Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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