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San Martín Mendoza vs Sol de Mayo Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 20:00

San Martín Mendoza

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sol de Mayo

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-18.6%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.0%1-111.6%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-17.8%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.8%3-13.5%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 21.7% — — —

Over 2.5 42.7% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 17.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.7%

H 52% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.0%

#2 0–0 14.1%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.8%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martín Mendoza1.3

Sol de Mayo0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTÍN MENDOZA · PPG 1.89

SOL DE MAYO · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Martín Mendoza (H) 52.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sol de Mayo (A) 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martín Mendoza face Sol de Mayo in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martín Mendoza a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Sol de Mayo 22%, so San Martín Mendoza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for San Martín Mendoza and 0.6 for Sol de Mayo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martín Mendoza are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.88 for Sol de Mayo.

San Martín Mendoza vs Sol de Mayo Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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