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Sarmiento de La Banda vs Sol de América Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 20:00

Sarmiento de La Banda

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sol de América

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-18.0%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.9%1-111.6%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-18.3%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.2%3-14.0%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 21.7% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 26.0% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.7%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.9%

#2 0–0 12.4%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.8%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento de La Banda1.4

Sol de América0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO DE LA BANDA · PPG 2.12

SOL DE AMÉRICA · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento de La Banda (H) 52.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sol de América (A) 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento de La Banda face Sol de América in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento de La Banda a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Sol de América 22%, so Sarmiento de La Banda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sarmiento de La Banda and 0.6 for Sol de América (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento de La Banda are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.78 for Sol de América.

Sarmiento de La Banda vs Sol de América Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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