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Atenas vs Kimberley Mar del Plata Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 20:00

Atenas

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kimberley Mar del Plata

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.0%0-116.1%0-25.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.9%1-111.7%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.9%2-14.3%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.7%3-11.0%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.0% — — —

Draw 36.5% — — —

Away win 29.5% — — —

Over 2.5 31.4% — — —

Over 3.5 13.2% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 17.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

D 36% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.0%

#2 1–0 18.9%

#3 0–1 16.1%

#4 1–1 11.7%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atenas0.7

Kimberley Mar del Plata0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.4% · O3.5 PROB 13.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATENAS · PPG 1.44

KIMBERLEY MAR DEL PLATA · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.11, combined xG 1.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atenas (H) 34.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 36.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kimberley Mar del Plata (A) 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atenas face Kimberley Mar del Plata in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atenas a 34% chance, the draw 37% and Kimberley Mar del Plata 30%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Atenas and 0.6 for Kimberley Mar del Plata (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atenas are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.62 for Kimberley Mar del Plata.

Atenas vs Kimberley Mar del Plata Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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