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San Martin Formosa vs Sportivo Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 19:00

San Martin Formosa

PPG 2.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sportivo Belgrano

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-110.5%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.4%1-113.0%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-18.1%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.9%3-13.3%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% — — —

Draw 32.4% — — —

Away win 23.4% — — —

Over 2.5 39.3% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 33.5% — — —

Away O1.5 21.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 15.4%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martin Formosa1.2

Sportivo Belgrano0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTIN FORMOSA · PPG 2.56

SPORTIVO BELGRANO · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.08 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Martin Formosa (H) 44.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sportivo Belgrano (A) 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martin Formosa face Sportivo Belgrano in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martin Formosa a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Sportivo Belgrano 23%, so San Martin Formosa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for San Martin Formosa and 0.8 for Sportivo Belgrano (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martin Formosa are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.50 for Sportivo Belgrano.

San Martin Formosa vs Sportivo Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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