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FK Beograd vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 07:30

FK Beograd

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Croydon Kings

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.1%0-23.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.0%1-19.7%1-26.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.3%3-16.0%3-24.2%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.5%4+-23.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 28.4% — — —

Over 2.5 64.0% — — —

Over 3.5 41.8% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Beograd1.9

Croydon Kings1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.78

CROYDON KINGS · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FK Beograd (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Croydon Kings (A) 28.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Beograd face Croydon Kings in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Beograd a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Croydon Kings 28%, so FK Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FK Beograd and 1.4 for Croydon Kings (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Beograd are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.67 for Croydon Kings.

FK Beograd vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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