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Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 05:30

Sturt Lions

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adelaide Comets

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.0%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.3%1-18.9%1-24.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.5%3-17.2%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-16.7%4+-23.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.1% 59.9% 1.67 -3.0%

Draw 21.2% 27.8% 3.60 -14.2%

Away win 20.7% 23.8% 4.20 -7.8%

Over 2.5 62.1% 63.7% 1.57 -2.5%

Over 3.5 39.4% 42.0% 2.38 -6.2%

BTTS 55.4% 64.5% 1.55 -14.1%

Home O1.5 60.1% 65.4% 1.53 -8.1%

Away O1.5 28.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 58% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sturt Lions2.2

Adelaide Comets1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

STURT LIONS · PPG 1.67

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sturt Lions (H) 58.1%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -3.0%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.2%

Adelaide Comets (A) 20.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sturt Lions face Adelaide Comets in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sturt Lions a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Adelaide Comets 21%, so Sturt Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Sturt Lions and 1.0 for Adelaide Comets (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sturt Lions are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.44 for Adelaide Comets.

Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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