Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 / Aalesund II vs Herd

Aalesund II vs Herd Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Matchday 15 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 16:30

Aalesund II

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Herd

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.8%0-25.0%0-34.3%0-4+5.4%1 1-02.3%1-16.1%1-28.0%1-37.0%1-4+8.7%2 2-01.9%2-14.9%2-26.5%2-35.7%2-4+7.0%3 3-01.0%3-12.6%3-23.5%3-33.1%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.5%4+-22.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.5% — — —

Draw 19.4% — — —

Away win 54.1% — — —

Over 2.5 71.6% — — —

Over 3.5 52.2% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 47.2% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob69.4%

A 54% / xG 1.6-2.6 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.0%

#2 1–3 7.0%

#3 1–1 6.1%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalesund II1.6

Herd2.6

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AALESUND II · PPG 1.00

HERD · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.01 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Aalesund II (H) 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Herd (A) 54.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalesund II face Herd in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalesund II a 27% chance, the draw 19% and Herd 54%, so Herd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Aalesund II and 2.6 for Herd (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalesund II are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.86 for Herd. This match finished 3-0.

Aalesund II vs Herd Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 Predictions