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Nardo vs Molde II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Matchday 14 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 16:00

Nardo

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Molde II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.9%0-21.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-01.2%1-12.9%1-23.4%1-32.7%1-4+2.9%2 2-01.9%2-14.6%2-25.5%2-34.4%2-4+4.6%3 3-02.0%3-14.9%3-25.8%3-34.6%3-4+4.9%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-18.6%4+-210.3%4+-38.2%4+-4+8.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% — — —

Draw 17.3% — — —

Away win 28.4% — — —

Over 2.5 80.6% — — —

Over 3.5 61.5% — — —

BTTS 70.3% — — —

Home O1.5 77.1% — — —

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob70.3%

H 54% / xG 3.2-2.4 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.8%

#2 2–2 5.5%

#3 3–1 4.9%

#4 3–3 4.6%

#5 4–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nardo3.2

Molde II2.4

COMBINED 5.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.6% · O3.5 PROB 61.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NARDO · PPG 1.67

MOLDE II · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nardo (H) 54.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Molde II (A) 28.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nardo face Molde II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nardo a 54% chance, the draw 17% and Molde II 28%, so Nardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Nardo and 2.4 for Molde II (5.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nardo are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Molde II.

Nardo vs Molde II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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