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Melhus vs Orkla Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Melhus

PPG 2.00 · HOME

8 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Orkla

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.5%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.6%1-16.6%1-23.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.9%2-19.0%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-08.0%3-18.1%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-110.6%4+-25.3%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.8% 84.0% 1.19 -22.9%

Draw 18.8% 16.9% 5.90 +6.6%

Away win 16.4% 10.6% 9.40 +32.5%

Over 2.5 65.3% 82.0% 1.22 -20.3%

Over 3.5 44.0% 62.1% 1.61 -29.2%

BTTS 59.9% 65.4% 1.53 -8.3%

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 31.5% 30.5% 3.28 +3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 8-3

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.9%

H 65% / xG 2.7-1.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 2–0 8.9%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melhus2.7

Orkla1.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MELHUS · PPG 2.00

ORKLA · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.70 for Home, form 2.00 vs 1.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Melhus (H) 64.8%

ODDS 1.19 · IMPLIED 84.0% EV -22.9%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +6.6%

Orkla (A) 16.4%

ODDS 9.40 · IMPLIED 10.6% EV +32.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melhus face Orkla in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melhus a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Orkla 16%, so Melhus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Melhus and 1.0 for Orkla (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melhus are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.17 for Orkla. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 8-3.

Melhus vs Orkla Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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