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Dock Sud vs Ituzaingo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:00

Dock Sud

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ituzaingo

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+34.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-16.2%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.4%1-19.2%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.5%2-16.8%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.1%3-13.3%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-11.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 47.6% 2.10 +34.4%

Draw 25.9% 34.5% 2.90 -24.9%

Away win 10.1% 27.4% 3.65 -63.1%

Over 2.5 29.1% 37.7% 2.65 -22.9%

Over 3.5 12.2% — — —

BTTS 25.9% 46.5% 2.15 -44.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob25.9%

H 64% / xG 1.5-0.4 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 26%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.4%

#2 2–0 16.5%

#3 0–0 15.2%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 3–0✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dock Sud1.5

Ituzaingo0.4

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DOCK SUD · PPG 1.00

ITUZAINGO · PPG 0.20

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Dock Sud (H) 64.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +34.4%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -24.9%

Ituzaingo (A) 10.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -63.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dock Sud face Ituzaingo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dock Sud a 64% chance, the draw 26% and Ituzaingo 10%, so Dock Sud are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Dock Sud and 0.4 for Ituzaingo (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 26% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dock Sud are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.20 for Ituzaingo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Dock Sud vs Ituzaingo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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