Today / Peru - Segunda División / Comerciantes vs Bentín Tacna Heroica

Comerciantes vs Bentín Tacna Heroica Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 13 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 20:30

Comerciantes

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bentín Tacna Heroica

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-19.7%0-23.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.6%1-112.2%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-17.7%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.9%3-13.2%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% — — —

Draw 27.9% — — —

Away win 21.4% — — —

Over 2.5 42.8% — — —

Over 3.5 21.9% — — —

BTTS 47.8% — — —

Home O1.5 36.0% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 79%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.8%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.6%

#2 0–0 14.7%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.7%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comerciantes1.3

Bentín Tacna Heroica0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.8% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

COMERCIANTES · PPG 2.60

BENTÍN TACNA HEROICA · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Comerciantes (H) 50.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bentín Tacna Heroica (A) 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Comerciantes face Bentín Tacna Heroica in Peru - Segunda División on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comerciantes a 51% chance, the draw 28% and Bentín Tacna Heroica 21%, so Comerciantes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Comerciantes and 0.7 for Bentín Tacna Heroica (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comerciantes are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.40 for Bentín Tacna Heroica.

Comerciantes vs Bentín Tacna Heroica Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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