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Union Comercio vs Academia Cantolao Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 13 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 20:15

Union Comercio

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Academia Cantolao

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.55 for Home, form 1.75 vs 0.25 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-13.6%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.6%1-16.8%1-21.1%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.4%2-16.4%2-21.1%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.2%3-14.0%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-12.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.6% — — —

Draw 22.9% — — —

Away win 8.6% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 26.4% — — —

BTTS 44.9% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 79%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob44.9%

H 69% / xG 1.9-0.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.6%

#2 2–0 19.4%

#3 3–0 12.2%

#4 0–0 10.9%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Comercio1.9

Academia Cantolao0.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION COMERCIO · PPG 1.75

ACADEMIA CANTOLAO · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.55 for Home, form 1.75 vs 0.25 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Union Comercio (H) 68.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Academia Cantolao (A) 8.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Comercio face Academia Cantolao in Peru - Segunda División on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Comercio a 69% chance, the draw 23% and Academia Cantolao 9%, so Union Comercio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Union Comercio and 0.3 for Academia Cantolao (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Comercio are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.25 for Academia Cantolao.

Union Comercio vs Academia Cantolao Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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