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Urena SC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:30

Urena SC

PPG 1.44 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fundación Lara Deportiva

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-110.1%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.5%1-113.0%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.4%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.6%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 43.5% 2.30 +4.0%

Draw 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Away win 27.6% 37.0% 2.70 -15.3%

Over 2.5 50.3% 48.1% 2.08 +4.6%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.2% 3.42 -0.9%

BTTS 52.9% 56.5% 1.77 -6.4%

Home O1.5 37.4% 42.0% 2.38 -11.0%

Away O1.5 32.4% 37.9% 2.64 -14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Urena SC1.3

Fundación Lara Deportiva1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

URENA SC · PPG 1.44

FUNDACIÓN LARA DEPORTIVA · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Urena SC (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +4.0%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Fundación Lara Deportiva (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Urena SC face Fundación Lara Deportiva in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Urena SC a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Fundación Lara Deportiva 28%, so Urena SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Urena SC and 1.0 for Fundación Lara Deportiva (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Urena SC are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.67 for Fundación Lara Deportiva. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Urena SC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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