Today / Russia - First League / Spartak Kostroma vs Enisey

Spartak Kostroma vs Enisey Prediction— Russia - First League

Regular Season - 4 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:30

Spartak Kostroma

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Enisey

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-16.6%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.6%1-111.2%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.5%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.5%3-15.4%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 50.5% 1.98 +6.1%

Draw 24.7% 32.1% 3.12 -13.8%

Away win 21.7% 25.4% 3.94 -8.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 45.2% 2.21 +11.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 25.9% 3.86 +6.9%

BTTS 49.2% 51.8% 1.93 -5.0%

Home O1.5 49.4% 44.8% 2.23 +10.2%

Away O1.5 20.3% 26.9% 3.72 -14.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 2–0 11.5%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Kostroma1.7

Enisey0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK KOSTROMA · PPG 1.80

ENISEY · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Kostroma (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +6.1%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.12 · IMPLIED 32.1% EV -13.8%

Enisey (A) 21.7%

ODDS 3.94 · IMPLIED 25.4% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Kostroma face Enisey in Russia - First League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Kostroma a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Enisey 22%, so Spartak Kostroma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Spartak Kostroma and 0.8 for Enisey (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Kostroma are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.38 for Enisey. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.4%.