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Žilina vs Skalica Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Žilina

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Skalica

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.6%0-23.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.2%1-19.4%1-26.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.0%3-16.5%3-24.2%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-15.3%4+-23.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 62.9% 1.59 -20.2%

Draw 23.9% 27.8% 3.60 -8.4%

Away win 25.9% 18.5% 5.40 +23.9%

Over 2.5 60.4% 55.6% 1.80 +8.7%

Over 3.5 38.3% 33.3% 3.00 +14.9%

BTTS 60.3% 55.6% 1.80 +8.5%

Home O1.5 58.3% 58.8% 1.70 -0.9%

Away O1.5 39.5% 26.3% 3.80 +50.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 19.0%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.3%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Žilina2.0

Skalica1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ŽILINA · PPG 1.56

SKALICA · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Žilina (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.59 · IMPLIED 62.9% EV -20.2%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.4%

Skalica (A) 25.9%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Žilina face Skalica in Slovakia - Super Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Žilina a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Skalica 26%, so Žilina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Žilina and 1.3 for Skalica (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Žilina are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.89 for Skalica. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +50.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Žilina vs Skalica Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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