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S. Bratislava vs Z. Michalovce Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Championship Group - 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:00

S. Bratislava

PPG 2.07 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Z. Michalovce

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.1%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.5%1-18.9%1-24.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.9%3-17.2%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-16.7%4+-23.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 77.5% 1.29 -30.6%

Draw 23.8% 20.0% 5.00 +11.4%

Away win 22.4% 11.6% 8.60 +55.6%

Over 2.5 61.4% 70.4% 1.42 -12.8%

Over 3.5 41.0% 48.8% 2.05 -16.0%

BTTS 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Bratislava2.2

Z. Michalovce1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

S. BRATISLAVA · PPG 2.07

Z. MICHALOVCE · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs P(Home)=53.8%

Win probability 1X2

S. Bratislava (H) 53.8%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -30.6%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +11.4%

Z. Michalovce (A) 22.4%

ODDS 8.60 · IMPLIED 11.6% EV +55.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Bratislava face Z. Michalovce in Slovakia - Super Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Bratislava a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Z. Michalovce 22%, so S. Bratislava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for S. Bratislava and 1.1 for Z. Michalovce (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Bratislava are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.20 for Z. Michalovce. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +55.6%. This match finished 0-2.

S. Bratislava vs Z. Michalovce Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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