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DAC Streda vs Spartak Trnava Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Championship Group · Matchday 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:00

DAC Streda

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Spartak Trnava

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.3%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.7%1-112.1%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.5%3-14.3%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 43.5% 2.30 +4.4%

Draw 26.6% 29.9% 3.35 -6.5%

Away win 28.1% 35.5% 2.82 -12.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Over 3.5 28.9% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DAC Streda1.5

Spartak Trnava1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DAC STREDA · PPG 2.00

SPARTAK TRNAVA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

DAC Streda (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +4.4%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.5%

Spartak Trnava (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

DAC Streda face Spartak Trnava in Slovakia - Super Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DAC Streda a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Spartak Trnava 28%, so DAC Streda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for DAC Streda and 1.2 for Spartak Trnava (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DAC Streda are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.67 for Spartak Trnava. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 3-0.

DAC Streda vs Spartak Trnava Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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