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Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:30

Coquimbo Unido

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Nublense

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.1%0-114.0%0-26.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.5%1-113.5%1-26.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.0%2-16.5%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 51.5% 1.94 -32.3%

Draw 31.9% 31.3% 3.20 +2.1%

Away win 33.2% 26.0% 3.85 +27.8%

Over 2.5 29.4% 45.5% 2.20 -35.3%

Over 3.5 12.4% 23.8% 4.20 -47.9%

BTTS 37.4% 51.8% 1.93 -27.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob37.4%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.1%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 1–1✓ 13.5%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coquimbo Unido1.0

Nublense0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.4% · O3.5 PROB 12.4%

Form & verdict PPG

COQUIMBO UNIDO · PPG 1.50

NUBLENSE · PPG 2.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

37%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Coquimbo Unido (H) 34.9%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -32.3%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.1%

Nublense (A) 33.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coquimbo Unido face Nublense in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coquimbo Unido a 35% chance, the draw 32% and Nublense 33%, so Coquimbo Unido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Coquimbo Unido and 0.9 for Nublense (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Nublense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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