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Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:30

Coquimbo Unido

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Nublense

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.1%0-114.0%0-26.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.5%1-113.5%1-26.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.0%2-16.5%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 51.5% 1.94 -32.3%

Draw 31.9% 31.3% 3.20 +2.1%

Away win 33.2% 26.0% 3.85 +27.8%

Over 2.5 29.4% 45.5% 2.20 -35.3%

Over 3.5 12.4% 23.8% 4.20 -47.9%

BTTS 37.4% 51.8% 1.93 -27.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 10.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob37.4%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.1%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 1–1✓ 13.5%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coquimbo Unido1.0

Nublense0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.4% · O3.5 PROB 12.4%

Form & verdict PPG

COQUIMBO UNIDO · PPG 1.50

NUBLENSE · PPG 2.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Coquimbo Unido (H) 34.9%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -32.3%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.1%

Nublense (A) 33.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coquimbo Unido face Nublense in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coquimbo Unido a 35% chance, the draw 32% and Nublense 33%, so Coquimbo Unido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Coquimbo Unido and 0.9 for Nublense (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Nublense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions