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Mohammedan vs Police Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Regular season ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 09:30

Mohammedan

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Police

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-110.0%0-27.4%0-33.6%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.2%1-112.2%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.0%2-17.4%2-25.4%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.0%3-13.0%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% — — —

Draw 25.8% — — —

Away win 38.3% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 34.0% — — —

Away O1.5 45.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mohammedan1.2

Police1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MOHAMMEDAN · PPG 1.82

POLICE · PPG 1.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mohammedan (H) 35.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Police (A) 38.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mohammedan face Police in India - Calcutta Premier Division on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mohammedan a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Police 38%, so Police are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mohammedan and 1.5 for Police (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mohammedan are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.78 for Police.

Mohammedan vs Police Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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