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Mohun Bagan vs Bhawanipore Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Regular season ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 09:30

Mohun Bagan

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bhawanipore

PPG 2.42 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.4%0-116.2%0-28.0%0-32.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.5%1-113.3%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.5%2-15.4%2-22.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.5%3-11.5%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% — — —

Draw 29.7% — — —

Away win 34.6% — — —

Over 2.5 44.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.1% — — —

BTTS 48.9% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 29.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.9%

D 30% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.4%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 16.2%

#4 1–0 13.5%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mohun Bagan0.8

Bhawanipore1.0

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MOHUN BAGAN · PPG 1.91

BHAWANIPORE · PPG 2.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.17, combined xG 1.81 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mohun Bagan (H) 35.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bhawanipore (A) 34.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mohun Bagan face Bhawanipore in India - Calcutta Premier Division on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mohun Bagan a 36% chance, the draw 30% and Bhawanipore 35%, so Mohun Bagan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Mohun Bagan and 1.0 for Bhawanipore (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mohun Bagan are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 2.42 for Bhawanipore.

Mohun Bagan vs Bhawanipore Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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