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Sol de América vs Defensores de Belgrano VR Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 22:30

Sol de América

PPG 2.38 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Defensores de Belgrano VR

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-15.3%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.6%1-110.2%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.7%3-16.2%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-14.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% — — —

Draw 23.0% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 20.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 10.2%

#3 1–0✓ 12.6%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sol de América1.9

Defensores de Belgrano VR0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SOL DE AMÉRICA · PPG 2.38

DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO VR · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sol de América (H) 55.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Defensores de Belgrano VR (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sol de América face Defensores de Belgrano VR in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sol de América a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Defensores de Belgrano VR 21%, so Sol de América are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Sol de América and 0.8 for Defensores de Belgrano VR (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sol de América are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.89 for Defensores de Belgrano VR. This match finished 1-0.

Sol de América vs Defensores de Belgrano VR Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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